The MLB Draft starts tomorrow and while it's not as polarizing as the NFL or NBA Draft, it is arguably the most fun with the highest probability of shock, awe, and stupidity.
If you’re reading this and you have no clue why this draft is so complicated, and why it is arguably the most risky, here is an excellent video from the great guys of Cespedes Family BBQ.
Quote of the Week: "It's T-Shirt Time" - DJ Pauly D
MLB Draft Predictions, Take 2
Earlier this year, when I was clearly not well, I saw the Top 10 shaping up like this:
Pittsburgh Pirates: Dylan Crews, OF, Louisiana State University
Washington Nationals: Wyatt Langford, OF, University of Florida
Detroit Tigers: Paul Skenes, SP, Louisiana State University
Texas Rangers: Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community High School (IN)
Minnesota Twins: Colton Ledbetter, OF, Mississippi State University
Oakland Athletics: Jacob Gonzalez, SS, University of Mississippi (Ole Miss)
Cincinnati Reds: Chase Dollander, SP, University of Tennessee
Kansas City Royals: Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick High School (NC)
Colorado Rockies: Tommy Troy, SS, Stanford University
Miami Marlins: Yohandy Morales, 3B, University of Miami
Lucky for everyone here, I am smarter than I once was. I don’t gamble, but if I did, I would see the draft shaking out below. I’ll try and give you some reasons as to why these lads matte to these prospective teams and additionally, I’ll tell you the Slot Value of that pick.
Slot Value: Each team has a specific value it can spend per draft, and that value is determined by adding the slotted value for each of its picks in the first 10 rounds. Teams normally do not go over that total slotted value, but it can go over slot for specific players if they choose to, and if they’ve saved money early.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes, SP, Louisiana State University (LSU)
Slot Value: $9,721,000
While Skenes “came out of nowhere” to most of the country, people like me, who casually watch Mountain West Conference Baseball on Tuesday nights, have known about Skenes for a long time. The Air Force Academy Transfer took a chance and transferred to LSU where he has without a doubt become one of the greatest pitchers in College Baseball history. The Pirates have a history of negotiating under-slot deals for college bats at the top of the draft to target high-school pitchers later on, it is HARD to pass up a pitcher like Skenes that could potentially impact the Pirate’s potential playoff run. Does Pauly become a bullpen guy come September?
Washington Nationals: Dylan Crews, OF, Louisiana State University (LSU)
Slot Value: $$8,998,500
I don’t think I believe in the rumors that Scott Boras is driving up the price for the Pirates because Dylan prefers to play in Washington but as someone moving back to the Washington DC area next year, I’m cool with it. Crews impacts the game in so many ways that he creates a “can’t miss” buzz and safety net for whoever drafts him.
The Nationals most certainly HAVE to draft a hitter. The Baseball America article this week calls out exactly how poorly they’ve drafted hitters in the last decade. The metrics in the report are torture for Nationals fans but pure comedy for fans of the 29 other teams.
Detroit Tigers: Wyatt Langford, OF, University of Florida
Slot Value: $8,341,700
….The Detroit Tigers need a draft win. No one (besides the Nationals) drafts as poorly as the Detroit Tigers. Part of their problem is their poor player development staff but no fanbase deserves a “can’t miss” prospect like the Tigers fanbase. Enter Wyatt Langford. Built like Paul Bunyan, Langford has the highest floor of any player, besides Crews, in the draft. At worst, Langford is a fourth outfielder, at best, he is the middle-of-the-order bat that Detroit thought they were getting in the last several (8) drafts…
Texas Rangers: Walker Jenkins, OF, South Brunswick High School (NC)
Slot Value: $7,698,000
Yes, a High Schooler is going to make $7.7 million dollars on Sunday. Walker Jenkins is the 18-year-old, left-handed version of Langford in so many ways. There is little doubt that Jenkins hits with authority at the next level. His track record on the summer circuit is comparable only to other top high school picks who have succeeded in pro-ball so far such as Jackson Holiday, James Wood, and Jackson Merrill. The only knock on Jenkins is his inability to play center field but that should not detract teams from taking a shot at him.
Minnesota Twins: Max Clark, OF, Franklin Community High School (IN)
Slot Value: $7,139,700
If capturing the hearts of every baseball player under the age of 15 was a measurable statistic, Max would be #1 by a wide margin. The rumors are swirling that Max is willing to take an under-slot deal to be the #1 draft pick and I for one really hope that happens because the YouTube content would be outrageous.
Max being the 1-1 pick however is not farfetched. In any other draft year, he would be the consensus first pick. Not only is he built like an NFL Safety, he’s been up to 99mph off the mound and has one of the fastest-ever recorded 60-yard dash times. What is probably most impressive about Max is at the age of 17, he went under about as drastic of a swing change as you could have, and while he plays for a non-competitive high school conference in Indiana, his high school statistics post-swing change are as jaw-dropping as it gets. Also, Max’s draft outfit is going to be as the kids say a “fit”.
Oakland Athletics: Kyle Teel, C, University of Virginia (UVA)
Slot Value: $6,634,000
Cover your ears kids (Sam), Kyle Teel is gritty as F*$%. How anyone could be upset by Kyle Teel joining their favorite team would be beyond me. The swag-less monster as I once heard an announcer call him, is the most athletic catcher we’ve seen in a draft class since Harry Ford (Mariners #2 prospect) and like Harry, Teel has shown the ability to play the Outfield as he did for Team USA at times last summer. An impact player on both ends of the ball, he has plenty to clean up behind the plate but the intangibles he possesses are top-tier. Baseball IQ is very overused by being gritty as f*$% is not.
Cincinnati Reds: Rhett Lowder, RHP, Wake Forest University
Slot Value: $6,275,200
Two-time ACC Pitcher of the Year and future Head and Shoulders model is the safest option in the college pitching class. While Skenes provides a bigger talent and upside, Lowder provides consistency and pitch-ability that Skenes has only flashed at times.
The most exciting thing about Lowder is how everyone talks about him. Coaches love him, teammates love him, opposing teams steal his DoorDash order, and he’s truly loved by his teammates and feared by opponents. He’s also arguably the smartest player in the draft and the best negotiator. Lowder bet his Economics professor that he would have a career season and tied his classes’ future extra credit to it. Lucky for his class, he had a career year and walked his way onto the ACC-Academic team to go along with this Pitcher of the Year accolades.
Kansas City Royals: Bryce Eldridge, RHP/1B, Madison High School (VA)
Slot Value: $5,980,100
The Royals need to re-load their farm system after graduating a significant portion of their rebuild from a few years ago. Eldridge has gotten unfair comparisons to Shohei Ohtani as the best two-way prospect in this year’s draft class. While he’s been up to 95mph this spring, he’s also reportedly battled some nagging injuries that have caused him to not tap into more velo. Imagine throwing 95mph and that not being all you have in the tank, geez. Not to be outdone by his impressive arm, Eldridge has bat speed and loft to his swing that creates light tower power and he’s had success on the biggest stages being MVP of Team USA last summer.
While he’s been linked to the back end of the first round, I think the possibility of him ACTUALLY being a two-way player is as high as anyone we’ve heard of since Brendan McKay. That is worth the risk, and the extra $$.
Colorado Rockies: Tommy Troy, 2B/3B, Stanford University
Slot Value: $$5,716,900
This pick is selfish and I will admit that to myself.
Colorado, listen very carefully to me. You need offense more than I need interest rates to go down so I can buy a home. Tommy Troy is offense. He dreams about hitting doubles and he hits doubles while he’s awake. I know he plays in the Pac-12 and they’ve had some down years. I don’t care. You need offense and Tommy is offense. Do not continue to waste Kris Bryant, Zac Veen, Brendan Rodgers, and your other pieces. Draft Tommy and let him spin.
Miami Marlins: Matt Shaw, 2B/3B, University of Maryland
Slot Value: $5,475,300
This is my favorite hitter in the draft. Matt Shaw is a create-a-player. If you took Max Clark’s quads, Tommy Troy’s barrel control, Kyle Teel’s grit, and Crew’s bat speed, and created a 1st round talent, he would look like Shaw. His swing is not orthodox and he’s not a shortstop long term but similar to the Rockies, the Marlins need more offense to go along with their young budding pitching staff and Shaw is a guy that can get to the big leagues in two years and be a mainstay in that lineup. He’s proven he can do it with wood bats, winning Cape Cod MVP last summer. Go Terps.
If you want to see how the actual members of Baseball media see the draft turning out, here are some of the Mock Drafts from the “experts”:
Future Star Series Mock Draft 3.0 by Joe Doyle
MLB Mock Draft by Jim Callis
Baseball Prospectus Mock Draft 4.0 by Dan Zielinski III
The Athletic Mock Draft 4.0 by Keith Law
Sporting News Mock Draft by Edward Sutelan
CBS Sports Mock Draft by Mike Axisa